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Summary

The American Marketing Association, in partnership with Decision Strategies International, used scenario-building to predict four archetypes of CMOs and their potential impact on marketing in 2015.  The AMA unveiled the groundbreaking results of the year-long project recently at its signature Mplanet conference in Orlando, FL.

The process of "disciplined imagination" used by AMA and DSI gives marketers a way to organize all of the uncertainty in the market and create possible stories or pictures of the future. The new marketsphere requires companies to go beyond computing variables and look at the very structures of its business models.  Scenario planning allows companies to break away from assuming future market predictions and start imagining new possibilities.

Strategic Guru.  Sales Facilitator.  Network Orchestrator.  Value Chain Optimizer.  What kind of marketer are you and what will your role be a half dozen years from now?

To help marketers answer that question, the American Marketing Association, in partnership with Decision Strategies International, used scenario-building to predict four archetypes of CMOs and their potential impact on marketing in 2015.  The AMA unveiled the groundbreaking results of the year-long project recently at its signature Mplanet conference in Orlando, FL.

If there is any lesson to be gained from the market turmoil of the past year, it is that companies must better anticipate what they cannot predict.  One way to look into the future is to create memories of it---envisioning the marketing industry years down the road, taking into account today’s known trends and—more importantly—the uncertainties of the profession and the marketing landscape.

The process of "disciplined imagination" used by AMA and DSI gives marketers a way to organize all of the uncertainty in the market and create possible stories or pictures of the future. The new marketsphere requires companies to go beyond computing variables and look at the very structures of its business models.  Scenario planning allows companies to break away from assuming future market predictions and start imagining new possibilities.

AMA's CEO Dennis Dunlap challenged industry leaders to use the scenarios and be flexible enough to market in the moment while still planning for a continuum of possibilities.

"If you really want to be a strategic force within your organization, you have to live in today and tomorrow," said Dunlap. "The marketers who will win in the new marketsphere will be the ones who systematically plan for future scenarios. They will identify not only the strategies and tactics best suited to the future, but also their role in navigating what they foresee."

Dr. Roch Parayre, Senior Partner with Decision Strategies International, offered marketers the following best practices for uncertain times: utilize scenario thinking; devise flexible, adaptive strategies; perform dynamic monitoring of weak signals; improve your organization’s agility; enhance information and decision making procedures to remain vigilant; and foster strong leadership at multiple levels of the organization.

Constructing the Scenarios

The AMA began its scenario-building project by identifying forces that might influence or shape the future role of marketing over the next seven years.  Through secondary research and interviews with a diverse group of marketing thought leaders, the AMA developed 80 different forces (see 2015 Marketing Trends highlights).  A survey of B2B/B2C marketers across multiple industries validated the forces that might influence or shape the future role of marketing and rated each force’s predictability and impact on the market.  Additionally, two workshops with marketers were conducted to obtain input on the construction of future scenarios and the implications for marketers of the various scenarios.  Through this process, the following four key future scenarios for 2015, each personified by a CMO archetype, were identified:

 Key Implications for Marketers:

To ensure marketing is a central contributor to business strategies and the company’s financial success, marketers must market in the moment while anticipating the future.  Specifically, marketing professionals will be called upon to do the following in the next few years:

• Be the Driving Force:  Take the lead in showing the need for scenario planning, especially if the company is only focused on short-term solutions and results.
• Go First, but Not Alone:  Gain consensus among the management team about the most likely future environment in 2015 or other target year, and its potential impact on marketing in the organization.
• Create a Roadmap:  Spearhead a course of action to prepare for the future states.
• Focus on Game Changers:  Concentrate on areas that will make a difference:
• Organizational  model
• Marketing competency and resources
• Brand strategy
• Profitable growth model
• Potential game changers

George S. Day, Ph.D, Professor of Marketing with The Wharton School, suggested to the Mplanet attendees that now is the time to both invest in deep market insights and tighten alignment with sales.  He advised marketers to learn to profit from the current proliferation of competitors, media channels and micro-segments of consumers as well as master collaborative technologies ahead of rivals.

Day also urged organizations to plan now to win the war for talent since everyone will want the same scarce set of skills.  He also stressed the importance of accepting accountability for returns on marketing strategy by collaborating with finance and focusing on metrics.

Related Documents:

2015 Marketing Trends Using Scenario Planning Method

Mplanet 2009 Image Gallery

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