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Executive Summary
The authors explore product category and customer characteristics that affect the likelihood of engaging in unplanned purchases—the “first moment of truth.” In addition, they examine several consumer activities that can exacerbate or limit these effects. The authors employ a hierarchical modeling approach to test the hypotheses using a data set of in-store intercept interviews conducted with 2300 consumers across 28 stores. The results support the predictions and generate several valuable shopper insights. The analysis reveals that the baseline probability of an unplanned purchase is 46%, but the contextual factors can drive this probability as high as 93%. In terms of product category characteristics, unplanned purchases are more likely for categories that are hedonic (e.g., ice cream), for categories that are purchased less frequently, and for categories that are on display. Unplanned purchasing decreases if the consumer uses a coupon. Regarding customer characteristics, the authors find that women are more likely to make unplanned purchases, as are shoppers from larger households. Notably, shoppers who are more familiar with the store seem to use the store as a memory cue and engage in more unplanned purchases than shoppers who are less familiar with the store. Regarding shopper activities that influence in-store decision making, the authors find that unplanned purchasing is greater for shoppers who do not use a written shopping list, make less frequent shopping trips, visit more aisles, pay by credit or check, and spend more time in the store. The findings have several important implications for shopper marketing, including (1) leveraging frequent-shopper programs as a tool to increase store familiarity, (2) strategically locating frequently purchased categories to increase aisles visited, (3) organizing shelf sets and category adjacencies to increase exposure to unplanned items, and (4) making the shopping experience as pleasant as possible to increase time spent in the store.

Biography
J. Jeffrey Inman is Albert Wesley Frey Professor of Marketing and Associate Dean of Research and Faculty in the Katz Graduate School of Management at the University of Pittsburgh. Before joining the faculty at the University of Pittsburgh in 2005, he was on the faculties at the University of Wisconsin and the University of Southern California. His research focuses on consumption behavior and consumer decision making. He is on the editorial board of Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Consumer Research, Marketing Science, Journal of Consumer Psychology, International Journal of Marketing Research, and Journal of Retailing. He is an associate editor at Journal of Marketing Research and International Journal of Research in Marketing . He has taught classes in marketing research, advanced research methods, scanner data, and marketing management. He recently developed a new course on category management. Jeff received his BS in Mechanical Engineering from General Motors Institute (now Kettering University), his MBA from Indiana University, and his PhD from the University of Texas.

Russell S. Winer is William Joyce Professor and Chair of the Department of Marketing in the Stern School of Business at New York University and is past executive director of the Marketing Science Institute. He received a BA in Economics from Union College and an MS and PhD in Industrial Administration from Carnegie Mellon University. He has been on the faculties of Columbia and Vanderbilt universities and the University of California at Berkeley. Professor Winer has been a visiting faculty member at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, Cranfield School of Management, the Helsinki School of Economics, the University of Tokyo, École Nationale des Ponts et Chausées, and Henley Management College. He has written three books—Marketing Management, Analysis for Marketing Planning, and Product Management—and a research monograph, Pricing. He has authored more than 60 articles in marketing on a variety of topics, including consumer choice, marketing research methodology, marketing planning, advertising, and pricing. Professor Winer has served two terms as the editor of Journal of Marketing Research, he is the past coeditor of Journal of Interactive Marketing, he is an associate editor of International Journal of Research in Marketing, he is the coeditor of Review of Marketing Science, and he is on the editorial boards of Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, and Marketing Science. He has participated in executive education programs around the world and is currently a director of the R.A.B. Food Group, Henley Management College, and the Crown Point Festival.

Rosellina Ferraro Assistant Professor of Marketing in the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland. Her research focuses on shopping behavior and the effects of the social environment and coping on preference and choice. She teaches classes in consumer behavior and information processing. Rosellina received her BA in Economics from Cornell University, her MS in Consumer Economics from Cornell University, and her PhD from Duke University.

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