Executive Summary
Product expectations are predictions about how good a product’s performance will be. A product may be chosen if it is expected to perform well, and a product may lead to satisfaction if its performance meets or exceeds expectations. For example, a consumer may choose a disposable camera in a store because he or she expects that its photograph quality will be better than that of competitors. After the consumer has the film roll processed, he or she may be satisfied if the photograph quality turns out to be better than expected. Similarly, a person may purchase a shirt over the Internet because he or she expects the fabric quality to be good. After the shirt arrives by mail, the consumer may be dissatisfied because the fabric quality turns out to be worse than expected.
This research explores how expectations can change from the time a product is chosen from a set of competing alternatives to the time the product’s performance is revealed. Specifically, it addresses the following question: Before the performance of a chosen product is revealed, can consumers’ expectations about product performance change over time (from the prechoice stage to the postchoice stage), even as product knowledge remains the same?
Prior research offers conflicting answers. One answer is that expectations should increase after choice because consumers assure themselves that the chosen product will do well; in other words, they made the right decision. A conflicting answer is that expectations should decrease after choice as consumers lower expectations in an attempt to reduce potential disappointment from the product. The current research offers a resolution by suggesting that expectations will increase soon after choice (i.e., optimism will arise) but decrease later when product performance is about to be revealed (i.e., optimism will fade away). Three experiments using disposable cameras establish that this fading-optimism effect arises over time, that it is caused by the imminence of performance revelation, and that the underlying process is a cognitive shift from being concerned about whether the right choice was made to being concerned about whether the performance will be good. Two additional experiments using soft drinks replicate this effect, rule out alternative explanations, and show that this effect varies with the ambiguity of the product’s performance and the prior attitude toward the product category.
This research offers some notable implications for practitioners. Expectations are known to determine not only whether consumers will choose a certain product but also whether consumers will be satisfied after the actual product performance is revealed. Therefore, managers should control these expectations and develop products that meet or exceed these expectations. By understanding the phenomenon of fading optimism in products and its relation to prior attitude and performance ambiguity, managers can obtain a more accurate view of what these expectations are. They can then better predict how expectations might change from the time the product is being considered for purchase to the time actual product performance is revealed.
Implications also arise for after-sales communication. It has previoulsy been suggested that postpurchase dissonance should be reduced by assuring consumers that they made a wise choice. Our research indicates that such reassuring should be done after performance is revealed. If it is done between choice and performance revelation, it will increase expectations and, thus, the potential for disappointment.
Finally, implications arise for warranties. Companies frequently offer optional warranties for the products they sell, in which consumers pay extra to offset the risk of a bad product performance. In light of our findings, consumers should be less likely to buy such warranties soon after purchase, when they are optimistic about performance, and more likely to buy them when performance is imminent. For example, at BestBuy.com, after a consumer adds a television to the shopping cart, a warranty (performance service plan) is offered for purchase. The company might have a better chance of selling the warranty if it is offered later (e.g., by telephone), on the day the television is going to be delivered.
Biography
Ashwani Monga is Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of Texas at San Antonio. He has a doctoral degree in Business from the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota, a master’s degree in Business from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedadad, and a bachelor’s degree in Dairy Technology from the National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, India. His research is aimed at understanding how consumers’ judgments are biased by personal motivations and by the format in which information is presented. In addition to Journal of Marketing Research, Ashwani has published in Journal of Consumer Psychology.
Michael J. Houston is Ecolab-Pierson M. Grieve Chair in International Marketing in the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. He is a former editor of the Journal of Marketing Research. His research has been published in Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, and various other journals. His current research focuses on consumer knowledge structures, especially as they apply to brands and/or different cultures. He earned his doctorate at the University of Illinois, Urbana–Champaign.
J Marketing Research, Volume 43, Number 4, November 2006
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